What the numbers are, where they come from, and where the model is honest about its limits.
All team metrics are derived from the last 10 competitive internationals (World Cup qualifiers, Nations League, continental tournaments) prior to the tournament. Friendly results are excluded.
Match records are sourced from publicly available football statistics databases. Where sources disagree, the primary match report is used as the reference.
Average of each team's scoring rate and conceding rate over their last 10 competitive matches, combined to give a per-match goal estimate. Not xG — it's a rolling average that trades model complexity for transparency.
Percentage of last-10 matches in which both teams scored. Combined with the opponent's equivalent for a match-level estimate.
Percentage of last-10 matches with 3 or more goals. Blended across both teams' records.
WORLD CUP EDITION: MODELLED ESTIMATE based on possession and attacking style proxies, not real corner data. Clearly marked in the sheet. From August (league season), corners use real match data only.
WORLD CUP EDITION: MODELLED ESTIMATE based on disciplinary record and referee tendency proxies. From August (league season), cards use real match data only.
Win-draw-loss record from last 10 competitive internationals (World Cup qualifiers, Nations League, continental tournaments). Friendlies excluded.
These are statistical reference numbers, not betting odds or outcome guarantees. The model has no "edge" — it summarises historical data and applies straightforward arithmetic. It does not account for team news, injuries, motivation, or referee assignment.
Variance is high in international football. A team rated strongly in the sheet can and will lose a team rated weakly. The value of the sheet is a fast, consistent read on all 72 matches from the same statistical baseline — not predicting winners.
After each matchday, the sheet is compared against actual results on X (@the72stats). Hits and misses are both logged publicly. See the Updates page.